The Big Picture
It will surprise nobody to hear the employment market has been tough for a while now. The headwinds are well known: geopolitical instability, high inflation and low growth, a large budget deficit, cautious business outlook, increased costs of hiring – the list could go on.
Despite this, the UK economy’s performance has been much like a mid-range pillow: soft, but not quite down. Growth has been less disappointing than anticipated[1][2], and it appears reports of the UK’s productivity death were greatly exaggerated.[3][4]
Similarly, there are signs of life in the job market – the latest REC/KPMG report highlights a rise in permanent placements (the first since Sep 2022), while temp billings marked a fifth consecutive month of growth.[5]
Nevertheless, a big picture view always obscures nuance. Different sectors face different challenges and opportunities, which don’t always sit neatly in a macro summary.
This article is an attempt to look beyond the headlines and answer the question: “how are the sectors that we serve faring?”
Education
Sentiment
The education sector is not in the happiest of places at the moment. Financial pressures are affecting many schools and colleges, with universities in particular being hit hard.
For higher education institutions, visa restrictions affecting international student numbers have had a big impact on budgets. Adding this into an environment of rising costs and eight years of frozen domestic tuition fees means many are now struggling: over 40% forecast a deficit for 2025/26, while nearly a quarter incurred restructuring costs last year (such as voluntary redundancy schemes).[6]
Schools, meanwhile, face a different squeeze. Pupil numbers have been falling, and as the majority of funding is allocated per pupil, budgets have shrunk – a trend set to continue.[7]
Unsurprisingly, these dynamics have fostered a sense of gloom for many working in education – already a sector where few can be accused of being underworked and overpaid.
Job market dynamics
As is covered in the full report, we have used vacancy rates as a key data point in assessing job market dynamics.
Briefly, the vacancy rate is the number of unfilled job vacancies divided by total jobs (both filled and unfilled). A high vacancy rate indicates a tight labour market, where job vacancies are abundant relative to people. Conversely, a low vacancy rate means lower demand for staff. Vacancy rate is therefore one of the clearest barometers for how employer demand stacks up against employee availability.
At 1.5%, education has the lowest vacancy rate of any sector in the ONS dataset, and recorded the second-largest quarterly fall in vacancy numbers (down 9.7%) of any sector.[8] Pandemic aside, that matches its lowest level since 2013 and sits far below its long-run norm.
While low vacancy rates are partly structural – education has run below the economy-wide average every year since 2010 – the current dip is a real reflection of the pressures discussed above.
In schools, official workforce data adds nuance to the picture. It’s true that demand for teaching staff has fallen, with vacancies over 40% lower since 2023/24 (from 2,800 to 1,600)[9]. However, overall headcount has actually remained fairly steady – only declining by 0.5% since the 2023/24 peak – with the low vacancy rate partially explained by fewer teachers leaving.[9] The data tells a different story for support staff. Full-time equivalent support staff now exceed FTE teachers by ~52,000 – the widest margin in a decade. Additionally (and interestingly), this support work is being done by fewer people,[9] highlighting a consolidation of work into fewer, longer hour roles.
In higher education, the picture is one of a tightening job market. HESA’s latest figures show academic staff numbers falling for the first time since 2014/15, down by around 2,200.[10] Underneath that is a changing composition of employment types: fixed-term contracts accounted for around 85% of the fall, while teaching-only posts fell by 4%.[10] ONS occupational data supports that trend; university staff on temporary contracts fell from 31,000 in 2023 to under 20,000 in March 2026.[11]
There is a clear focus from universities on protecting their permanent core staff, while cutting back on contract roles. As this is often the entry point for early-career academics, they are likely to be finding today’s job market the hardest.
On a positive note, for the first time since Autumn 2024 more non-compulsory education employers expect headcount to increase than decrease over Q4.[12][13] Though given the budgetary pressures, we’re unsure whether this heralds new, sunlit uplands for hiring in the sector.
Education: the bottom line
Education faces a financial squeeze on two fronts: falling pupil numbers in schools, and lost international student income in universities. Its vacancy rate is the lowest of any sector. Yet, despite headlines, this is less a story of mass job losses than of a workforce being stretched further. In schools, support staff hours have held up even as their numbers have fallen, so the same work is being done by fewer people. Meanwhile, many universities are restructuring to shore up their finances.
For employers: with support work concentrated in fewer, longer-hours roles, retention and workload deserve as much attention as recruitment. Burnout in a stretched team is a cost in itself. When roles do arise, expect healthy candidate pools.
For candidates: opportunities are thinner on the ground, and the roles that do come up are often broader in scope than before, so showing you can cover several areas will help. Being flexible about setting helps too. Skills in finance, operations, IT and student support transfer well between schools, colleges and universities, and hiring intentions in colleges and universities have recently turned positive, albeit cautiously.